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NFL odds, lines, spreads, picks, predictions for Week 16, 2020: Proven model loving Texans, Chargers.
SportsLine's computer model simulated every Week 16 NFL game 10,000 times with surprising results.
After winning Super Bowl 54 and signing Patrick Mahomes to a massive contract extension during the offseason, the Kansas City Chiefs have met expectations in 2020 by winning 13 of their first 14 games. Now, they'll have a chance to clinch a first-round bye and home-field advantage in the AFC playoff bracket with a win or a Steelers loss or tie. The Chiefs are favored by 10.5 over the Falcons in the latest Week 16 NFL odds from William Hill Sportsbook.
Meanwhile, the Steelers are two-point favorites against the Colts in the Week 16 NFL spreads. Where can you find value as you make your NFL bets, and which teams will fall flat? All of the Week 16 NFL lines are listed below, and SportsLine's advanced computer model has all the NFL betting advice and predictions you need to make the best Week 16 NFL picks now.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NFL game 10,000 times and is up nearly $7,900 for $100 players on its top-rated NFL picks since its inception five-plus years ago.
It's a sizzling 22-11 on top-rated NFL picks this season, already returning over $800. The model enters Week 16 on an incredible 118-76 roll on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. Additionally, the model also ranked in the Top 10 on NFLPickWatch in three of the past four years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 95 percent of CBS Sports office pool players three times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.
Now, it has examined the latest Week 16 NFL odds and NFL betting lines from William Hill, simulated every snap, and its predictions are in. Head to SportsLine now to see them all.
Top NFL predictions for Week 16.
One of the top Week 16 NFL picks the model recommends: The Texans cover as seven-point favorites at home against the Bengals. Both teams have had difficult seasons, with Houston entering Week 16 at 4-10 overall and the Bengals at 3-10-1. However, this line would likely be close to double-digits if Cincinnati had not shocked Pittsburgh in Week 15.
Despite the thrilling win, Cincinnati is still in a precarious situation at quarterback and will have a difficult time keeping pace with a Houston offense that ranks third in passing yardage. Deshaun Watson has had a stellar year with 4,134 yards and 27 touchdowns against just six interceptions while rushing for another 394 yards and three more scores.
Watson has thrown for at least 300 yards in eight of his last 11 starts, while Cincinnati ranks 25th in net yards per pass attempt allowed (6.8). That's why the model predicts that Watson produces nearly 350 yards of total offense overall and scores multiple touchdowns. Meanwhile, Houston's defense records three sacks and forces a pair of turnovers in the model's simulations, helping the Texans cover well over 50 percent of the time.
Another one of the top Week 16 NFL predictions from the model: The Los Angeles Chargers (-3) cover at home against the Denver Broncos. The Chargers have won each of their last two games, while Denver limps into Sunday's AFC West rivalry having lost five of its last seven.
Los Angeles is averaging 384.4 yards per game this season, which ranks seventh in the NFL. Quarterback Justin Herbert has been sensational in his rookie season and enters Sunday's showdown with 27 touchdown passes, which is tied with Baker Mayfield for the most passing touchdowns by a rookie in NFL history. Herbert also had a ton of success against the Broncos earlier this season, throwing for 278 yards and three touchdowns.
The line opened at Los Angeles -2.5, but has moved up half-a-point. The model is calling for Herbert to throw for over 270 yards and two scores, while running back Austin Ekeler racks up over 90 yards from scrimmage. Los Angeles covers the spread in well over 50 percent of simulations, while the over (48) has all the value.
How to make Week 16 NFL picks.
The model has also made the call on every other game on the Week 16 NFL schedule and identified a Super Bowl contender that goes down hard. You can only get every pick for every game here.
What NFL picks can you make with confidence in Week 16? And which Super Bowl contender goes down hard? Check out the latest NFL odds from William Hill below and then visit SportsLine to see which NFL teams are covering in more than 50 percent of simulations, all from the model that is up nearly $7,900 on its top-rated NFL picks.

MMQB Staff Week 17 NFL Picks.
It's Week 17! The league's playoff picture still has a whopping seven out of 14 available spots unaccounted for, meaning we're likely to see a ton of drama (and scoreboard watching) unfold across the NFL on Sunday.
In the AFC, our staff is unanimously picking the Ravens, Browns and Titans to win and secure their spot in the postseason. However, only half of our six staffers think the Dolphins will be able to beat the Bills on the road and do the same. If they fail to do so, that'd let the Colts—favored across the board to beat the Texans—sneak in as the conference's final playoff team.
In the NFC, only two of our six experts think the Washington Football Team will hold onto the top spot in the NFC East by beating the Jalen Hurts-led Eagles, who are only playing for pride at this stage. If Washington does indeed lose, that'd open the door for the winner of Cowboys-Giants, which five of our staffers favor Dallas to win. Every picker thinks the wild card-chasing Bears will lose to the Packers, who are hoping to clinch home-field advantage through the conference championship. But Chicago still would get in if the Rams can beat Arizona despite missing injured quarterback Jared Goff, a scenario forecasted by two MMQB editors.
Here's who's picking games straight up for the MMQB this year:
Albert Breer, Senior NFL Reporter Andrew Brandt, Business of Football Columnist Gary Gramling, Senior Editor Mitch Goldich , Editor/Writer Conor Orr, Staff Writer Jenny Vrentas , Senior Writer.

Skip Bayless, Stephen A. Smith, and Other Sports Media Personalities Make Their Super Bowl Picks.
The Super Bowl is upon us. Finally. Sunday should bring a quality game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Kansas City Chiefs. Bold predictions have been made all week and breakdowns of each individual squad have ruled the waves of both television and radio.
It all comes to a head at 6:30 p.m. ET tomorrow. In the meantime, feast your eyes upon the various predictions the sports media world has made ahead of the Big Game.
Skip Bayless Super Bowl Prediction.
That's one in the chamber for the Bucs. A bit lower-scoring than one might guess, but it is the Super Bowl, after all. We've seen weirder outcomes.
Colin Cowherd Super Bowl Prediction.
One for the Chiefs from Cowherd. A higher score prediction than Bayless, and with the most recent news that it probably won't be raining during the actual game tomorrow, it feels like this FOX Sports host will be more on the ball with the total point score.
Side note: love the pirate theme from the FOX team.
Nick Wright Super Bowl Prediction.
Wright made his pick alongside Brandon Marshall and Kevin Wilder, and it's a clean sweep in favor of the Chiefs. No surprise that noted KC fan Wright would go with his hometown squad, but it's mildly more surprising that Wilder (noted Patriots fan) would go against his guy Brady. Wright also gives a pick that is probably more aggressive in favor of Kansas City than any other you'll find here. As someone merely hoping for a great game, I hope he's wrong.
Dan Patrick Super Bowl Pick.
Patrick didn't have a segment like the previous entries on this list, but he did make his pick alongside all the other FOX personalities. He doesn't think you can pick against the GOAT. Hard to blame him, really. A one-point final score would ensure everyone stays glued to their TVs, too, which CBS would undoubtedly love.
CBS Super Bowl Predictions.
Here's the CBS squad making their picks, 3-2 in favor of the Chiefs. Tiki Barber did not go against his brother's team.

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